Article translated by Marine Slavitch — Original version published on the Nieman Lab website on February 7, 2023.
A future that initially seems baroque and implausible can become reality faster than one might imagine.
That's at least what I told myself when I remembered an old article published on the Nieman Lab website in 2011 – an article that seems relevant to me again today. It was a press conference that Eric Schmidt, then executive chairman of Google, had given to journalists Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher at what was then the annual All Things Digital conference. In this interview, all three address many current topics, from Google's loss to Facebook on the question of "friends" to the potential acquisition of Twitter. One section, which concerned news organizations in particular, had already generated considerable reaction in 2011.
At the time, one of the journalists had started by criticizing the decline in quality of Google search results:
" As a consumer, I find that Google's search results are increasingly cluttered with links I don't want to see or that don't seem relevant. Is your core algorithmic approach – which was hugely successful and so different from everyone else's – still the right one? Is there a possibility that someone could come along and do to you what you did to AltaVista? "
Altavista was the leading search engine on the Web around 1998, before Google took its place.
Eric Schmidt began by defending the quality of Google's search results, before admitting:
" We're trying to shift from link-based results to algorithm-based results, which allow us to actually calculate the best answer that can be given to a specific user. We now have artificial intelligence technology that's advanced enough to give you the right answer by literally computing it. "
Something look familiar? Google built an empire by «polluting» its search engine results with ads. Its blind spot? A competitor capable of giving users direct answers rather than links to websites that might have answers.
Microsoft has just unveiled a new version of its search engine, Bing, which integrates ChatGPT, the conversational and generative AI unveiled late last year. According to a leaked version, the new Bing would be built around this promise: " Ask real questions. Get complete answers. " In addition to traditional search engine results, users will also be able to chat with "an AI-powered search engine". This new Bing is part of Microsoft's massive $10 billion investment in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT.
Google saw it coming, of course, and so tried to get ahead of the news yesterday by announcing the launch of its own AI-powered chatbot, Bard. It is already available to a handful of "trusted testers" and will be "more widely available to the public in the coming weeks".
Even at the 2011 press conference, Bing was reportedly already ahead of Google in its ability to provide direct answers to search queries. Eric Schmidt even acknowledged it, « for certain limited cases ».
All of this is extraordinarily exciting and perhaps represents the most significant revolution in consumer technology since the iPhone. I have never been less confident in predicting what the Internet will look like in a year or two. Will these new interfaces represent only a modest improvement for 5 or 10% of our search engine queries? Or will artificial intelligence become the dominant technology for directing users to online information sites? At the pace of progress we're observing, it is risky to place a ceiling on what's possible.
But there is another question, one that directly concerns the news industry and to which we cannot yet provide an answer. Currently, rather than delivering direct answers, Google drives significant traffic to news sites – more than any other external source, by far. Media outlets invest time and money in improving their search rankings, and the reward they receive translates into traffic to their sites, which is monetized through advertising.
But the more Google answers questions without requiring clicks on links, the less traffic news sites that answer them directly will receive. Less traffic means fewer ad impressions, therefore less revenue.
We already highlighted this problem in our 2011 article:
" The shift outlined by Eric Schmidt, which moves from a "link-based" approach to an "algorithm-based" approach, could have a substantial impact on media outlets whose business model involves providing answers to search engine users' questions. […] "
In 2011, the questions Google was willing to answer without redirecting to links were quite limited. They were all based on structured data, primarily precise figures.
- What's the weather like in Cambridge today?
- What is the trend in Apple's stock price?
- What time is it in Zanzibar?
- What was the score of last night's Mavs-Heat game?
- How many euros is 100 USD?
- How many people live in Canada?
- What is 73 times 14 minus 12?
But even at that point, it was clear that their range would expand:
« For now, Google's ability to answer questions directly is limited by what its algorithms can know. But they will become smarter, and Eric Schmidt's comments clearly show that one of the company's strategic goals is to make them do so. So imagine that, in the near future, Google could provide direct answers to questions such as:
- What time is Modern Family on?
- Who are the Republicans running in the presidential election?
- Which red shirts are on sale at Macy's?
- Who plays left back for the New Orleans Saints? »
Though Modern Family disappeared long ago, Google today readily tells you what time Abbott Elementary airs. And the search engine is happy to let Macy's buy advertising space to talk about its red shirts. But it still relies on links to discuss presidential candidates and the Saints' offensive line.
In its current form, ChatGPT is not connected to the open Internet and is only trained on information up to 2021, which makes the software not very good at discussing current events. However, both Google and Microsoft have stated that their chatbots will be able to draw from the entire web in real time, and their results will likely be excellent.
Let’s go back to 2011 for a moment. TV schedules, team rosters, and lists of presidential candidates were still structured data—the kind of thing that didn’t seem too out of reach at the time. But what about the next level of difficulty?
"Imagine that Google's artificial intelligence system improves to the point where it can answer questions like these:
- Did the Dallas City Council approve a zoning change last night?
- Was the stimulus package too small to be effective?
- What will replace the space shuttle program?
- What is Terrence Malick's best movie?
- Did Osama bin Laden really use his wife as a human shield?
- Is My Morning Jacket's new album any good?
Some of these questions are complex enough that Google isn’t able to provide a single, definitive answer, as it can with a database. But it’s not hard to imagine that it could provide a Metacritic-style overview of critical reviews of My Morning Jacket’s album, or a summary of customer reviews of Terrence Malick’s DVDs on Amazon. It could draw on public data about government activity to tell you what happened at the city council meeting (and perhaps determine which parts of the agenda were important, based on news articles, community bloggers, and social media traffic). It could gather articles from trusted news and government sources about NASA and algorithmically combine them into as much information as the researcher desires. “This represents a shift in Google’s approach; websites that were once competitors might find themselves on equal footing as they parse and analyze their data to find an answer.”
I asked ChatGPT each of these questions, and the software did a pretty good job. It managed to provide correct answers to both of these questions:
"What will replace the space shuttle program?"
- The Space Shuttle program was officially retired in 2011 and replaced by the Commercial Crew Program. The Commercial Crew Program is a NASA initiative aimed at outsourcing the design, development, and operation of spacecraft for human spaceflight to low Earth orbit. The program was created to provide reliable and safe access to the International Space Station (ISS) for NASA astronauts and international partners. The two companies selected to participate in the program are SpaceX and Boeing. SpaceX’s spacecraft, the Crew Dragon, has already successfully completed several missions to the ISS, and Boeing’s spacecraft, the CST-100 Starliner, is currently in the testing and certification phase. “These new spacecraft are designed to be more cost-effective and efficient than the space shuttle, and they are expected to provide reliable and safe transportation for astronauts to the ISS for many years to come.”
"Did Osama bin Laden really use his wife as a human shield?"
- Yes, reports indicate that Osama bin Laden used his wife as a human shield during the raid on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, on May 2, 2011. According to the official account of the raid, bin Laden’s wife, Amal al-Sadah, was shot in the leg while bin Laden was using her as a shield in an attempt to protect himself. The incident was reported by various news sources, including U.S. government officials, and was later confirmed during the investigation into the raid.
He was helpful, though ambiguous, on these points:
"What is Terrence Malick's best movie?"
- Terrence Malick is a highly regarded filmmaker, and his works are often considered among the best in the industry. It is subjective to single out a specific film as his “best,” as this depends on individual tastes and interpretations. However, some of his most acclaimed works include *The Tree of Life* (2011), *Badlands* (1973), and *Days of Heaven* (1978). These films are often cited as among the best in his filmography and showcase his unique style, the beauty of his cinematography, and themes of nature and spirituality.”
"Was the stimulus package too small to be effective?"
- The effectiveness of the stimulus plan is a matter of debate and depends on various economic, political, and social factors. Some economists argue that the stimulus package was too modest to have a significant impact on the economy, as it did not provide sufficient support to those most affected by the economic downturn. Others argue that the scale of the stimulus package was appropriate given the political and economic constraints at the time. According to them, the plan provided enough support to stabilize the economy and prevent it from collapsing further, while funding major infrastructure projects and programs that helped create jobs and stimulate growth. Ultimately, the effectiveness of the stimulus plan is difficult to quantify and measure, and it depends on a variety of factors and perspectives.”
ChatGPT didn't know what My Morning Jacket's latest album was. So I asked a specific question about their 2011 album:
"Is My Morning Jacket's album *Circuital* any good?"
- *Circuital* is My Morning Jacket’s sixth studio album, released in 2011. The album received generally positive reviews from music critics, who praised its blend of eclectic musical styles and the band’s ability to craft compelling, atmospheric songs. Many of the band’s fans consider Circuital to be one of the strongest albums in their discography, and it is often praised for its cohesive sound and memorable songs. The album was also well-received commercially, reaching the top 30 on the Billboard 200 and receiving positive reviews from many well-known music publications.
Ultimately, whether or not *Circuital* is a good album is subjective and depends on each person’s personal taste. If you’re a fan of My Morning Jacket’s music or if you enjoy a mix of rock, alternative, and psychedelic influences, it’s worth a listen.”
"A cohesive sound and memorable songs" are, it should be noted, rather vague compliments, and the album did in fact reach number five on the Billboard 200—not "just" the top 30.
The last question—“Did the Dallas City Council approve a zoning change last night?”—is one that ChatGPT cannot answer at this time, since its information is limited to 2021. But then again, Google and Microsoft won’t have this problem. And for local news organizations, the ability of tech companies to correctly answer these types of questions will be essential. The information gathered by local journalists can therefore be invaluable. Will search engines be able to incorporate this knowledge and convey it to users without even redirecting them to an online media outlet’s link?
The debates (and lawsuits) surrounding the ethics of images generated by artificial intelligence raise similar questions—although using image AI to mimic an artist’s style is different from reproducing specific facts from a publication in the case of conversational AI. “How do I write an article about the city council?” ≠ “What did the city council do last night?” Does this type of conflation differ, legally or ethically, from the indexing of content that search engines have always performed? While publishers around the world have asked Google to compensate them, the company’s response has been simple: “But we’re sending you all this traffic!” Does the debate change when this becomes less and less true? Or will Google, recognizing this risk, decide to focus on the more strategic realm of non-local news, considering that the legal and public relations risks are lower when summarizing Wikipedia rather than *The Hometown Gazette*?
Who knows? Not me. The me from 2011 didn't know either:
"These questions aren't straightforward—they quickly become very complicated artificial intelligence problems. But they all show that Google is working hard to reduce the number of times users have to leave google.com to get answers to their questions. Despite all the times Google has stated that it is not active in the content space, it’s not hard to imagine a future where its mission to ‘organize the world’s information’ extends far beyond search and link building and results in algorithmic processing of answers instead of PageRank.”
This development—far more than previous complaints by news organizations against Google—could put real pressure on the business models of news sites. It calls into question how to navigate the link economy and the meaning of concepts such as search engine optimization, fair use, and aggregation. And it certainly seems that Eric Schmidt pointed the way forward last night.”
A dozen years later, all these questions are becoming more than just rhetorical.
Editor's note
This text is not a word-for-word translation of the original article published on the Nieman Lab website. We have added contextual elements, adapted certain expressions, and removed certain passages containing detailed references intended for English-speaking or American readers. We have also chosen to apply inclusive writing conventions to this translation, in accordance with the editorial guidelines that apply to all Médianes content.
